Apple could hit a $4 trillion market cap by early 2025

Apple’s ( AAPL ) artificial intelligence rollout could drive demand for the iPhone 16 this holiday season — and send the tech giant’s market value to a new record high.

Analysts at Wedbush, led by Dan Ives, said in a recent note that the Cupertino, California-based company “is set to have a strong holiday season ahead as iPhone 16 upgrades across its installed base are trending well into Christmas.”

In particular, Apple stands to sell upwards of 240 million iPhones in the 2025 fiscal year, fueled by AI-driven upgrades. The researchers said this could be “the highest iPhone unit sales year in Apple’s history.”

Shares of Apple closed at $254.49 each Friday, up nearly 2%. So far this year, the company’s stock has surged 37%, lifting its market capitalization to $3.85 trillion. That makes it the most valuable company in the world, followed by Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ).

Wedbush maintained its $300 price target, and said Apple is on track to become the first company to hit a $4 trillion market cap by early 2025.

Although iPhone sales jumped 6% year-over-year in the September quarter to $46.22 billion, the company’s annual revenue grew just 1% in the 2024 fiscal year.

While the company has been banking on its new AI features, known as Apple Intelligence, to supercharge sales, some analysts have warned that more substantial innovations will be needed to drive interest.

Wedbush said the “naysayers” are overlooking key opportunities within the company. With 2 billion iOS devices currently in use worldwide and 1.5 billion iPhones, Wedbush believes that there are approximately 300 million iPhones that haven’t been upgraded within the past four years.

That, combined with a strong services business and the massive potential for Apple users to tap into AI through their iOS devices, could give Apple the boost it’s been gearing up for, the analysts said.

“We believe the success of iPhone 16 with a strong holiday season ahead over the next week will be the launching pad for a renaissance of growth in Cupertino over the next 12 to 18 months,” they wrote.

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