Crypto gamblers are betting more than $369 million that Trump will win

Crypto bettors are increasingly forecasting that former president Donald Trump might win the 2024 presidential election, and are betting more than $369 million on this hypothesis, according to Polymarket. The recent upsurge in their Polymarket wagers has propelled Trump’s chances of winning to a new two-month peak on the prediction platform.

Earlier forecasts on the real-time crypto betting site placed Trump’s probability of victory below that of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Market sentiment on Polymarket show that the current Vice President has a 46% chance of winning the election, according to recent Polymarket wagers.

However, a separate Polymarket vote places Harris’ chance of winning the popular vote at 73%, with only 27% of crypto gamblers believing Trump will take the lead.

Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform, reflects realtime market sentiment on key issues in politics and finance. Supporters say Polymarket users are incentivized to favor accuracy – given the significant financial stakes they’ve invested in predictions – which leads the platform to ostensibly display genuine market sentiment. In the past, users have successfully predicted President Joe Biden’s probability of dropping out of the race, and have gambled on whether Taylor Swift would endorse Kamala Harris.

However, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s decision this summer to suspend his presidential campaign sparked outcry from crypto gamblers on Polymarket, who cried foul play. “Polymarket didn't do Polymarket this time,” one user wrote about the disputed results, highlighting the volatility and stakes at play in a market where, in total, more than $1.4 billion in crypto bets have been placed regarding the presidential election.

Despite the change in Trump’s odds reflecting a two-month high for the former president, Polymarket sentiment can shift rapidly, making it uncertain where the market will settle as November 5 approaches.