Two rate calls on deck as markets consolidate

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Interest rate decisions in Thailand and Indonesia top the Asian calendar on Wednesday, as investors put the recent rebound across many markets on hold and look ahead to a keynote speech from U.S. Fed chief Jerome Powell later in the week.

The global equity market picture going into Wednesday appears to be one of consolidation, while U.S. Treasury yields are retreating once again and the dollar is printing fresh lows for the year.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, one of the most hawkish U.S. rate-setters, on Tuesday repeated that she sees upside risks to inflation and is cautious about cutting rates. But traders are increasingly confident the easing cycle will begin next month, and are putting a 30% probability on the Fed kicking it off with a half percentage point cut.

The two-year Treasury yield is back below 4.00% and the dollar index is down 3% this month. This is supportive of Asian and emerging markets - MSCI's emerging market currency index on Tuesday hit a fresh record high.

Taking advantage of the dollar's weakness, the Chinese yuan posted its biggest one-day rise this year at the central bank's daily fixing on Tuesday. In the spot market, the yuan registered its strongest close since Jan. 2.

Asia's calendar on Wednesday also includes Japanese trade figures and South Korean producer price inflation, but the focus will be on Bangkok and Jakarta.

The Bank of Thailand will keep its one-day repo rate unchanged at 2.50% and through the first quarter of next year, according to a Reuters poll, as policymakers balance growth, inflation and ongoing political instability.

Rates traders are more dovish though, attaching a roughly 80% probability to a quarter-point cut in December. Inflation is running below target and the government has repeatedly called for interest rates to be cut, but central bank governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput has so far resisted.

Figures on Tuesday showed that the Thai economy expanded in the second quarter faster than economists had expected, with annual growth reaching 2.3% against estimates of 2.1%. First quarter growth was revised up too.

Bank Indonesia, meanwhile, is also widely expected to keep its benchmark seven-day repo rate on hold at 6.25%, then cut borrowing costs in the fourth quarter after the Fed's easing cycle gets underway, according to a Reuters poll.

Annual inflation is barely 2.00%, the lowest in two and a half years, but policymakers are wary that easing policy too soon could weigh heavily on the rupiah.

Asian currencies are generally weaker against the dollar so far this year but have recovered most of these losses in recent weeks. The Thai baht is even up slightly year to date.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Wednesday:

- Thailand interest rate decision

- Indonesia interest rate decision

- Japan trade (July)