Lowe's expected to post further sales decline following Home Depot's disappointing results

Lowe's ( LOW ) is likely to follow in Home Depot's ( HD ) footsteps as shoppers hold off on home renovations amid a difficult macroeconomic environment.

On Tuesday, Lowe's is expected to release its fiscal second quarter earnings report before the market open. Based on Bloomberg consensus data, Wall Street expects revenue to decline roughly 4% year over year to $23.9 billion and adjusted earnings per share to drop 13% to $3.97.

Same-store sales are expected to fall 4.43%, driven by weaker foot traffic trends, down 0.74%, and a smaller check size, down 3.6%. This would mark the seventh straight quarter of sales declines for the home improvement retailer.

In its Q1 earnings call, CEO Marvin Ellison said that "uncertainty around interest rate cuts, stubborn inflationary pressures, and a consumer still showing a preference towards spending on discretionary services and experiences continue to weigh on the DIY home improvement demand."

He added, "Real wage growth and home price appreciation are solid, but the home improvement customer is still on the sideline, expressing concerns about the higher cost of living and the state of the overall economy."

Last week, competitor Home Depot ( HD ) reported another quarter of muted earnings.

Home Depot reported revenue of $43.18 billion, compared to $43.79 billion expected, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $4.67, compared to estimates of $4.52.

Same-store sales declined by 3.3%, versus the 2.39% drop Wall Street expected. This also marked the seventh straight quarter of negative sales growth for Home Depot. US same-store sales were down 3.6%.

Both foot traffic and the average ticket size dropped, down 1.8% and 1.3%, respectively.

The company updated its fiscal 2024 guidance. It now expects total sales, including the 53rd week, to increase in a range of 2.5% to 3.5% year over year, up from the 1% previously expected.

Comparable sales are set to decline between 3% and 4% for the 52-week period compared to fiscal 2023, worse than the 1% drop previously expected.

Home Depot said while comparable sales for the company aren't currently "on the trajectory" to decline 4%, that "implies incremental pressure on consumer demand."

Following Home Depot's results, Telsey Advisory Group, with research led by Joe Feldman, lowered its Q2 outlook and annual estimates for Lowe's. The firm expects same-store sales to fall 4.5%, and revenue to come in at $23.9 billion.

"Our anticipation of further weakness for Lowe's reflects a normalizing industry environment following the pandemic, a housing market that remains soft with higher mortgage rates, and the consumer facing general macroeconomic uncertainty regarding the election and decision-making by the Federal Reserve for interest rates," Feldman wrote.

Feldman said Lowe's Total Home strategy, which is intended to provide a full range of products to DIYers and pros, should benefit the retailer long term and allow it to gain market share.

Other home improvement retailers' soft Q2 results, including from Stanley Black & Decker ( SWK ), Floor & Decor ( FND ), and Tractor Supply ( TSCO ), "solidify" concerns, per Feldman.

Here's what Wall Street expects from Lowe's this upcoming quarter, compared to what the company posted in Q2 of last year:

Following its Q1 results , the company reaffirmed its 2024 outlook. It is expected to end the year with total sales of $84 billion to $85 billion, with same-store sales down 2% to 3% year over year.

BrookeDiPalma